Forecasting and Macroeconomic Planning

Major: Finance, Banking and Insurance
Code of subject: 6.072.00.M.029
Credits: 3.00
Department: Department of Economics and Marketing
Lecturer: • senior lecturer Samotіy Natalia Stepanovna
Semester: 4 семестр
Mode of study: денна
Learning outcomes: As a result of studying the discipline, the specialist must learn information on: the classification of forecasts, the relationship of forecasts with macroeconomic plans, the development of forecasting, the quantification of forecasts, the compilation and implementation of macroeconomic plans. 1. Expert estimation methodology for forecasting economic parameters, and forecasting verification; 2. Application of mathematical methods, in particular, extrapolation, barometric, factor-productive methods; method of analysis of hierarchies for quantitative estimation of forecasts; 3. Understanding of the content and features of the formation of the system of national accounts; 4. Ability to analyze the content and reality of macroeconomic forecasts, state and target programs, state budgets; 5. Knowledge of the content and efficiency of economic, administrative and socio-psychological levers of macroeconomic regulation.
Required prior and related subjects: Prerequisites: Management, Macroeconomics Corequisites: Entrepreneurship , International Economics
Summary of the subject: Planning is a management function. Main planning parameters: priority, choice, risk, value, classification and methods of taking into account the risk. Methodology and classification of planning. The content of forecasting and forecasting classification. Methodological basis of forecasting; macroeconomic indicators. Basics of choosing a macro development model. Types, sources and forms of information representation. Methods of economic forecasting: concepts, types, areas of use. Methods of predicted extrapolation (time series analysis, least squares method, extrapolation by exponential average). Barometric, factor-productive methods and others. Forms of planned documents - the state budget, the state program of development, the target program. Organizational support for the development and implementation of macroeconomic plans. Current state of forecasting in Ukraine: organization, functions and powers of state bodies of forecasting and planning.
Assessment methods and criteria: Current control (testing, independent work, essay) - 40 points; Final control - 60 points
Recommended books: 1. Воронкова В.Г. Соціально-економічне прогнозування: Навчальний посібник. – К.: ВД «Професіонал», 2004. – 288 с. 2. Глівенко С.В., Соколов М.О. Економічне прогнозування: Навчальний посібник. – 3-тє вид., перероб. та доп. – К., 2004. 3. Грабовецький Б.Є. Економічне прогнозування та планування: Навчальний посібник. К.: ЦНЛ, 2003. 4. Домарадзька Г.С., Гладун Т.М., Фещур Р.В., Самотій Н.С. Прогнозування і макроекономічне планування: Підручник для студентів економічних спеціальностей: Львів.: «Магнолія 2006», 2013, - 304 с.