Forecasting of Economic Processes

Major: Management
Code of subject: 7.073.01.E.053
Credits: 4.00
Department: Organizational Management
Lecturer: Assoc. Prof. Yulia Voitsekhovska
Semester: 2 семестр
Mode of study: денна
Мета вивчення дисципліни: The purpose of teaching this discipline is for masters to study the basics of analysis and forecasting of economic processes, to ensure the development of independent logical thinking of students in this field of knowledge, as well as to form in students the skills of practical use of the acquired knowledge from the discipline after graduation in their scientific activities or in managerial work in industrial enterprises or service organizations.
Завдання: general competences: 1. The ability to solve complex tasks and problems in the field of management or in the learning process, which involve conducting research and/or implementing innovations under uncertain conditions and requirements. 2. Skills in using information and communication technologies. 3. Ability to abstract thinking, analysis and synthesis. professional competences: 1. The ability to form leadership qualities and demonstrate them in the process of managing people. 2. Ability to analyze and structure organizational problems, make effective management decisions and ensure their implementation. 3. The ability to forecast the level of the organization's economic indicators, to implement intra-company forecasting technologies for planning the organization's potential, its marketing, sales, and budgets.
Learning outcomes: 1. To demonstrate knowledge and understanding of modern problems of social development. 2. To reveal the socio-economic essence of the phenomena and processes of the economic activity of organizations, to assess the impact on the economic processes of external factors, the development trends of the world economy, to have a holistic view of the organization's development system, to analyze and use historical experience in solving current problems of the domestic economy. 3. Develop strategic, tactical and operational plans for current activities, resource provisioning plans of all kinds, business plans and monitor their implementation. 4. Make well-founded strategic marketing decisions, combine various economic and mathematical methods and models of planning, organizing and evaluating the effectiveness of the economic activity of enterprises and organizations.
Required prior and related subjects: prerequisites: strategic management. corequisites: completion of master's qualification work.
Summary of the subject: The discipline covers theoretical and practical aspects of forecasting economic processes. The lecture material allows you to master the methodology of research and forecasting of economic processes, systematizes and expands theoretical knowledge of the discipline. Laboratory classes are aimed at forming the abilities and skills of working with application software packages and forecasting socio-economic phenomena through the student's individual performance of the correspondingly formulated tasks. Methodological recommendations with a list of questions for independent study have been developed for the student's independent work.
Опис: 1.Предмет і завдання дисципліни. Методологічні основи прогнозування економічних процесів. 2.Логіка розробки прогнозу. Методи знаходження кривих підгонки. Коефіцієнт детермінації та інші способи оцінки моделей. 3.Статистичні методи прогнозування. Екстраполяція тенденції на основі динамічних рядів. Методи верифікації прогнозів, виявлення помилок у прогнозуванні. 4.Експертні методи прогнозування, їх види. 5.Трендвотчинг – новий напрямок у бізнесі. 6.Вибір варіантів управлінських рішень з застосуванням елементів прогнозування.
Assessment methods and criteria: written reports of laboratory works, oral quiz (30%); final examination: written form (70%).
Критерії оцінювання результатів навчання: Points for current control in practical and laboratory classes are awarded during classes according to the schedule. Points based on the test results are generated automatically in the VNS. Enrollment of program learning results obtained in non-formal and informal education and re-enrollment of program learning results obtained in other educational institutions as a result of academic mobility takes place in accordance with the educational and professional training program for the relevant specialty and internal standards for ensuring the quality of educational activities and higher education ( Regulations on the academic mobility of students, graduate students, doctoral students, scientific and pedagogical and scientific workers at the National University "Lviv Polytechnic", the Procedure for re-enrollment (enrollment) of academic disciplines or other components of the curriculum at the National University "Lviv Polytechnic"). • The grade "excellent" (88-100 points) corresponds to a comprehensive systematic and deep knowledge of the program material; assimilation of information from the lecture course, basic and additional literature; clear mastery of the conceptual apparatus, methods and tools provided by the program; the ability to use them correctly to solve both typical and atypical problem situations; • The grade "good" (71-87 points) corresponds to the knowledge of the main program material; assimilation of information from the lecture course; possession of the basic conceptual apparatus, methods and tools provided by the program; the ability to use them without error to solve typical situations, making individual mistakes; • The rating "satisfactory" (50-70 points) corresponds to ignorance of the main program material; mastery of certain concepts, methods and tools, making significant mistakes when using them. • The rating "unsatisfactory" (0-49 points) assumes that the student does not understand the essence of the questions and does not know the basic concepts of the course.
Recommended books: 1. Сайт Державного комітету статистики України. – Режим доступу : www.ukrstat.gov.ua. 2. Войцеховська Ю.В., Новаківський І.І. Основи статистичного прогнозування економічних процесів: навч. посібник / Ю.В.Войцеховська, І.І.Новаківський. – Львів: Видавництво «Новий Світ – 2000», 2020. – 200 с. 3. Боровиков В. П. Прогнозирование в системе STATISTICA в среде Windows / В. П. Боровиков, Г. И. Ивченко. – М. : Финансы и статистика, 1997. – 268 с. 4. Геєць В. М. Моделі і методи соціально-економічного прогнозування : підручник / В. М. Геєць, Т. С. Клебанова, О. І. Черняк та ін. – Х. : ВД "ІНЖЕК", 2005. – 396 с. 5. Иванов В. В. Анализ временных рядов и прогнозирование экономических показателей / В. В. Иванов. – Х. : ХНУ, 1999. – 230 с. 6. Клебанова Т. С. Методы и модели прогнозирования социально-экономических процессов : учебн. пособ. / Т. С. Клебанова, В. А. Курзенев, В. Н. Наумов и др. – СПб. : Издательство СЗИУ РАНХ и ГС, 2012. – 566 с. 7. Клебанова Т. С. Методы прогнозирования : учебн. пособ. / Т. С. Клебанова, В. В. Иванов, Н. А. Дубровина. – Х. : Изд. ХГЭУ, 2002. – 372 с. 8. Клебанова Т. С. Эконометрия на персональном компьютере / Т. С. Клебанова, Н. А. Дубровина, А. В. Милов и др. – Х. : Изд. ХГЭУ, 2002. – 208 с.