Economic Forecasting of Business and Trade Efficiency

Major: Business, Trade and Exchange Activities
Code of subject: 7.076.01.O.002
Credits: 4.00
Department: Ecological Politics and Environment Protection Management
Lecturer: Dr. Prof. R. Slav`yuk
Semester: 1 семестр
Mode of study: денна
Мета вивчення дисципліни: The goal of the discipline "Economic forecasting of the effectiveness of activities in the field of entrepreneurship and trade" is the formation of theoretical knowledge and practical skills in modeling and forecasting the economic and social development of the country, so that the student, having mastered the program material, is able to characterize the methods and models of optimization of transfer flows.
Завдання: Integral competence (INT) The ability to solve complex tasks and problems in the field of entrepreneurship, trade and/or exchange activity or in the process of learning, which involves conducting research and/or implementing innovations under uncertain conditions and requirements. General competences (CG) ZK 1. Ability to adapt and act in a new situation. ZK 2. The ability to identify, pose and solve problems. ZK 5. Determination and persistence in relation to assigned tasks and assumed responsibilities. Special (professional) competences (S(F)K) SC 2. The ability to evaluate products, goods and services in business, trade and/or stock exchange activities. SK 3. Ability to effectively manage the activities of business entities in the field of entrepreneurship, trade and/or stock market activity. SK 4. Ability to solve problematic issues and make management decisions in professional activities.
Learning outcomes: Autonomy and responsibility (AB) AB2 Responsibility for the development of professional knowledge and practices, assessment of the team's strategic development. AB3 Ability to further study which is largely autonomous and self-directed. RN1. To be able to adapt and show initiative and independence in situations that arise in professional activity. PH2. Identify and analyze the problems of entrepreneurship, trade and stock exchange activity and develop measures to solve them. RN5. To be able to professionally, in full and with creative self-realization perform assigned tasks and activities. RN7. Determine and implement strategic plans for the development of economic entities in the field of entrepreneurship, trade and/or stock market activity RN9. Develop and make decisions aimed at ensuring the efficiency of business entities in the field of business, trade and/or stock exchange activities. RN10. To be able to solve problematic issues that arise in the activities of business, trade and/or stock exchange structures under conditions of uncertainty and risks. ЗН1 Specialized conceptual knowledge acquired in the process of study and/or professional activity at the level of the latest achievements, which is the basis for original thinking and innovative activity, in particular in the context of research work ЗН2 Critical understanding of problems in education and/or professional activity and at the border of subject areas Skills (Skills): УМ1 Solving complex problems of problems that require updating and integration of knowledge, often in conditions of incomplete/insufficient information and conflicting requirements UM2 Conducting research and/or innovative activities
Required prior and related subjects: Prerequisites: Methods of empirical market research Requirements: Business planning and audit of investment projects Postrequisites: Commercial risk management
Summary of the subject: The discipline will enable the formation of theoretical knowledge and practical skills in modeling and forecasting of the country's economic and social development, so that the student, having mastered the program material, will be able to characterize the methods and models of optimization of transfer flows. The ability to solve complex specialized tasks and practical problems during professional activity in the field of entrepreneurship, trade and exchange activity or in the process of learning, which involves the application of theories and methods of trade entrepreneurship and is characterized by the complexity and uncertainty of conditions.
Опис: Topic 1. Methodological foundations of forecasting economic processes 1. Basic concepts, goals and tasks of forecasting economic processes. Stages and principles of forecasting 2. Prediction as an anticipatory reflection of reality 3. Forecasting and planning, their tasks, similarities and differences 4. The place of forecasting among the functions of managing socio-economic processes 5. Types and purpose of forecasts, methods and parameters of forecasts Topic 2. Economic efficiency of the enterprise's commercial activity 1. The essence of economic efficiency 2. The main indicators of evaluating the effectiveness of commercial activity. Topic 3. Use of methods of forecasting the economic efficiency of the enterprise's commercial activity 1. The concept of a trend, methods of establishing the presence of a trend 2. Simple methods of trend extrapolation extrapolation based on analytical indicators of dynamics series, extrapolation based on moving average Topic 4. Economics - mathematical and statistical methods of evaluating and forecasting the effectiveness of commercial activity 1. Methods of evaluating the effectiveness of commercial activity in the forecasting system 3. Determination of model values 5. Smoothing models with a trend. Topic 5. Fundamental and technical analysis in the system of forecasting the economic efficiency of the commercial activity of enterprises 1. Modern methods of fundamental analysis and forecasting 2. Technical analysis 3. The use of fundamental and technical analysis to build forecasts Topic 6. Use of technical means in the forecasting process Software in the forecasting process Use of licensed software products Topic 7. Use of forecasting results in business processes and formation of cross-industry balances
Assessment methods and criteria: Current control (40%): practical work, oral examination, test control. Final control (60%): exam; test tasks (40%); oral component (20%).
Критерії оцінювання результатів навчання: 5 points for knowledge of the educational material of the module contained in the main and additional recommended literary sources, the ability to analyze the phenomena being studied in their relationship and development. 4 points for knowledge of the educational material of the module contained in the main and additional recommended literary sources, the ability to analyze the phenomena being studied. 3 points for mediocre knowledge of the educational material. 2). testing students' knowledge of theoretical material: 0.1 point for one correct answer of each of the 150 tests
Порядок та критерії виставляння балів та оцінок: 88-100 points - certified with the grade "excellent"; 71-87 points - certified with a grade of "good"; 50-70 points - certified with a "satisfactory" rating; 26-49 - "not certified"; 00-25 points - "not certified" - rating "unsatisfactory"
Recommended books: Golikov V.I. Transfer of technologies: Training manual. — Mykolaiv: NUK, 2015. — 362 p. 2. Kosarev O.Y. Financial flows in logistics systems: teaching. manual / O. Y. Kosarev, O. V. Pozniak – K.: NAU-druk, 2015. – 246 p. 3. Slav'yuk R. A., Shkvarchuk L. O. Financial analysis of the commercial activity of the enterprise: a study guide. – Lviv: Prostir-M, 2021. – 305 p. 4. Financial analysis. Edited by Shkolnyk I. O. Study guide. K.: Tsul. 2016.- 368 p. 5. Sklabinska A. I. Financial analysis. Study guide. Lviv: Scientific World - 2000. – 2018.- 342 p. 6. Zagursky O. Financial analysis. K.: Center of educational literature. 2019- 470 p. 7 Slav'yuk R. A. Dictionary of economic terms. – Lviv: Prostir-M, 2022. – 190 p. Pomykalska Bozyna, Pomykalski Przemyslaw. Analiza finansowa przedsiebiorstwa. Wskazniki i decyzje w zarzadzaniu. Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, 2017. - 454 s. 8. Слав’юк Р. А., Шкварчук Л. О., Кондрат І. Ю. Financial market imbalance: reasons and peculiarities of occurrence in Ukraine (Дисбаланси фінансового ринку: причини та особливості прояву в Україні). Investment Management and Financial Innovations. 2017. Volume 14. Issue 1. Pp. 227-235 (фахове видання), віднесено до Міжнародної наукометричної бази даних Scopus. 9. Шкварчук Л. О., Слав’юк Р. А. The evaluation of companies’ investment attractiveness based on сash flow analys (Аналіз грошових потоків у системі оцінювання інвестиційної привабливості підприємств). Financial and credit activity: problems of theory and practice. 2017. No. 1. С.158-171 (фахове видання), віднесено до Міжнародної наукометричної бази даних Web of Science. 10.Shkvarchuk L., Slav’yuk R. Households’ credit demand: main trends and characteristics for Ukraine // Банки і банківські системи. – 2021. – Vol. 16, iss. 3. – P. 13–22. (SCOPUS). (https://www.businessperspectives.org/index.php/journals/banks-and-bank-systems/issue-389/households-credit-demand-main-trends-and-characteristics-for-ukraine) 11. Shkvarchuk L., Slav’yuk R. Households’ credit demand: main trends and characteristics for Ukraine // Банки і системи банку. – 2021. – Vol. 16, iss. 3. – P. 13–22. (sciverse SCOPUS). 12. PAWEL DEBSKI DAMIAN DEBSKI Planowanie, analiza ekonomiczna i sprawozdawczosc, wydawnictwo: WsiP 2013– 230 s. 13. Franciszek Blawat Podstawy analizy ekonomicznej Teorie, przyklady, zadania. Wydawnictwo: CeDeWu. – 2020 – 282s.
Уніфікований додаток: Lviv Polytechnic National University ensures the realization of the right of persons with disabilities to obtain higher education. Inclusive educational services are provided by the Service of accessibility to learning opportunities "Without restrictions", the purpose of which is to provide permanent individual support for the educational process of students with disabilities and chronic diseases. An important tool for the implementation of the inclusive educational policy at the University is the Program for improving the qualifications of scientific and pedagogical workers and educational and support staff in the field of social inclusion and inclusive education. Contact at: St. Karpinsky, 2/4, 1st floor, room 112 E-mail: nolimits@lpnu.ua Websites: https://lpnu.ua/nolimits https://lpnu.ua/integration
Академічна доброчесність: The policy regarding the academic integrity of the participants of the educational process is formed on the basis of compliance with the principles of academic integrity, taking into account the norms "Regulations on academic integrity at the Lviv Polytechnic National University" (approved by the academic council of the university on June 20, 2017, protocol No. 35).

Economic Forecasting of Business and Trade Efficiency (курсовий проект)

Major: Business, Trade and Exchange Activities
Code of subject: 7.076.01.O.006
Credits: 3.00
Department: Ecological Politics and Environment Protection Management
Lecturer: Assistant Professors of the department of entrepreneurship and ecological expertise of goods
Semester: 1 семестр
Mode of study: денна
Learning outcomes: The purpose of studying the discipline is to deepen the theoretical and practical knowledge and tools for forecasting economic processes of enterprise development, identification of possible states in the future, as well as the study of patterns of their development in the context of globalization challenges and threats. The objectives of the discipline are: - providing theoretical knowledge of methodology and methods of forecasting economic activity of the enterprise; - formation of practical skills in conducting forecast calculations to substantiate the best options for making management decisions for enterprise development and development of alternative forecasts using modern forecasting tools; - identification of probable ways and results of future development of the enterprise; - acquisition of skills of independent, creative use of theoretical knowledge in practice..
Required prior and related subjects: Commercial risk management Methods and models for optimizing the transfer flows of a trade organization Strategy and tactics of behavior in commodity markets
Summary of the subject: Economic forecasting: essence, subject, objects and basic forms of prediction. Methods of economic forecasting as an academic and scientific discipline. Economic forecasting system. The main groups of forecasts. Basic principles of forecasting. Basic forecasting functions. Content, goals and methods of forecasting the activities of the enterprise. Specific methods of economic forecasting and their classification. Intuitive forecasting methods. Formalized forecasting methods. Economic-mathematical, factor and structural models in forecasting
Assessment methods and criteria: Current control (40%): practical work, oral examination, test control. Final control (60%): exam; test tasks (50%); oral component (10%).
Recommended books: 1. Economic forecasting: textbook. manual / SV Glivenko, MO Sokolov, OM Zavgorodnya. - Sumy: University Book, 2014. - 207 p. 2. Voronkova VG Socio-economic forecasting: textbook. way. / VG Voronkova. - К .: Професіонал, 2004. - 288 с. 3. Glivenko SV Economic forecasting: a textbook / Glivenko SV, Sokolov MO, Telizhenko OM - Sumy: University Book, 2001. - 207 p. 4. Grabovetsky BE Planning and economic forecasting: a textbook / BE Grabovetsky. - Vinnytsia: VNTU, 2013. - 66 p.