Research and development of international economic relations between Ukraine and Poland taking into account currency fluctuations
Students Name: Lisnovska Olha Anatoliivna
Qualification Level: magister
Speciality: International Business
Institute: Institute of Economics and Management
Mode of Study: full
Academic Year: 2020-2021 н.р.
Language of Defence: англійська
Abstract: Lisnovska O.A., Odrekhivskyi M.V. (supervisor). Research and development of international economic relations between Ukraine and Poland taking into account currency fluctuations. Master`s thesis. – Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, 2020. Extended abstract One of the conditions for the development of the country’s economy is to attract international capital, in particular through investment, so the country must be financially attractive to potential investors. However, the current situation in Ukraine is characterized by a number of problems in various sectors of the economy, which together determine the overall low investment attractiveness of the country. Economic problems are reflected in the instability of the national currency, the progressive devaluation, the lack of a clear mechanism for exchange rate formation and the inconsistency of the price of foreign currency with economic realities. That is why the search for ways to form an effective monetary policy is important and relevant in ensuring sustainable economic development. The primary element of this task is to assess the magnitude of currency fluctuations, the real exchange rate and the factors of their formation. All this determines the relevance of the research topic [1]. The object of the study is the international economic relations between Ukraine and Poland, taking into account currency fluctuations and banking activities of JSC "Kredobank". The subject of the study is to take into account currency fluctuations in the development of international economic relations, the object - JSC "Kredobank". The purpose of the master’s qualification work is to identify features, as well as research and development of international economic relations of JSC "Kredobank" taking into account currency fluctuations; substantiation of theoretical provisions and development of theoretical recommendations to ensure the assessment of currency fluctuations of JSC "Kredobank" in the development of international economic relations on the basis of practical experience. This goal is due to the need to solve the following tasks: generalization of theoretical provisions on the essence of the categories "exchange rate", "currency fluctuations", "currency risk"; study of the legal framework on the selected problem in the context of expanding international economic ties; analysis of indicators of banking and international economic activity and features of currency fluctuations assessment of JSC "Kredobank". During the writing of the master’s thesis we used the following research methods: methods of analysis and synthesis, induction, deduction and abstraction, as well as methods of formalization; methods of monitoring, logical research, analysis and comparison; methods of research, observation and extrapolation. The structure of the master’s qualification work consists of four sections: in the first the essence of the concept of "currency fluctuations" and "international economic relations" is considered, theoretical aspects of development of international economic relations taking into account currency fluctuations are given, features of legal regulation of international economic relations taking into account currency fluctuations. The total number of analyzed scientific publications and legal documents exceeds 50 publications, where, respectively, more than 5 sources in each case were published in 2020 [2-5]. The second section of the master’s qualification work considers the specifics of the activities of JSC "Kredobank", conducted a thorough analysis of indicators of banking and international economic relations of the enterprise, assessed international economic relations taking into account currency fluctuations. The third section of the work is devoted to forecasting trends in the development of indicators of banking and international economic activity of JSC "Kredobank", as well as forecasting trends in currency fluctuations. In the fourth section of the master’s qualification work, alternative options for the development of international economic relations taking into account currency fluctuations of JSC "Kredobank" are proposed, the economic substantiation of the project measure is carried out. At the end of the work the conclusions about the results of the conducted researches are given. Application of improvement of currency risk management system of JSC "Kredobank" based on the use of stress testing by Value At Risk method to take into account currency fluctuations in international economic relations will allow the bank to: increase net income to 958888.8 thousand UAH; increase the total and net profit to 429603 thousand UAH and 352274 thousand UAH accordingly, change the total cost of services provided to 276103 thousand UAH, increase assets to 11021492 thousand UAH (by 0.15%), change equity to 1261787 thousand UAH, as well as change such indicators as return on assets (+0.18); return on equity (+1.2); profitability of provided services (+6.06). The return on investment will also change to (+1.36). Thus, JSC "Kredobank" will achieve its task. Key words: exchange rate, currency fluctuations, personnel valuation, VaR and CFaR concepts, banking systems of Ukraine and Poland, international economic relations. References. Бондаренко, А.І. (2018). Дослідження валютного ризику: концепції VaR і CFaR. Бізнес Інформ, 1, с.253-261. Вербіцька, І.І. (2013). Мінімізація валютних ризиків вітчизняних підприємств. Інноваційна економіка, 4, с.289-294. Воробйова, К.О. та Горносталева, А.В. (2015). Макроекономічні валютні ризики як наслідок виникнення мікроекономічних валютних ризиків. Економічний нобелівський вісник, 1, с.17–22. Шкварчук, Л.О. та Карпенко, А.О., 2018. Оцінювання ризику валютного ринку України. Економіка і суспільство, 19, с. 1204-1209. Чайковський, Я.І. та Чайковська, І.Я., 2017. Аналіз розвитку банківських систем України та Польщі: 2009-2017 роки, Економічний аналіз, 3. с.134-143.