Forecasting of traffic flow delay with the use of simulation modelling
Students Name: Yorzh Stanislav Valentynovych
Qualification Level: magister
Speciality: Traffic Control and Organization
Institute: Institute of Mechanical Engineering and Transport
Mode of Study: full
Academic Year: 2021-2022 н.р.
Language of Defence: ukrainian
Abstract: Yorzh S., Royko Yu. (supervisor). Forecasting of traffic flow delay with the use of simulation modelling. Master’s qualification work. - Lviv Polytechnic National University, Lviv, 2021. Extended abstract. Traffic delay is one of the most important indicators when assessing the effectiveness of transport services on sections of city streets (roads) and suburban roads. Having information about the magnitude of the traffic delay, we can draw conclusions about: effective or inefficient operation of traffic lights; the presence of "bottlenecks" (problems) in sections of the road network; distribution of time intervals between vehicles in the main and secondary directions in the area of unregulated intersections; road conditions; quality of transport service on the street or road section, etc. Researchers in [1–6] have formulated various approaches to determining traffic delay, as well as proposed a number of measures to minimize it. Thus, in [1,2,6] the description of the state of the flow of vehicles is given, the fundamental approaches to the application of different methods to determine the delays in these flows are developed, and the rational limits of practical application of these methods are established. The authors in [5] focus on forecasting the state of the main indicators of the transport system, which in particular considers the predicted state of the traffic flow (traffic intensity, traffic flow composition, etc.). Studies [3,4] are mainly scientific and applied in nature. They present the results of the application of various approaches to determining the traffic delay in different sections of the road network and the different state of traffic. The following factors are taken into account: intensity, density, speed and composition of the traffic flow; time parameters of traffic light regulation; technical and economic indicators of vehicles; condition of the road surface and road conditions. This paper simulates the change of traffic delay on a city street before the introduction and after the introduction of design measures to change the scheme of traffic organization. Motion simulation was performed using a specialized simulation software environment PTV VISSIM. The essence of the simulation was that there was an increase in traffic intensity throughout the street, which was introduced into the software environment, and determined the amount of traffic delay at all intersections of the street at a certain forecast state. The results of such modeling will allow to identify possible problematic situations caused by the means of regulation or the scheme of traffic organization in the future. The following types of research were used during the master’s thesis: - theoretical research - analysis of the state of traffic flow and delays in it for different sections of the road network, based on changes in key factors; - field research - measurement of the main indicators of traffic flow using existing methods of such research; - method of simulation modeling - application of a specialized software environment to determine the predicted state of traffic delay in traffic flows depending on changes in traffic intensity, as well as problem areas on the road network in future periods. The object of the study is delays in traffic flows on regulated and unregulated sections of the city street. The subject of the research is the regularities of changing the length of the queue and the duration of travel by vehicles of regulated and unregulated sections of a city street with two-way traffic flow. The purpose of the study: to determine the projected state of traffic and the magnitude of the delay in it, as well as the effectiveness of the scheme of traffic on city streets in future periods. According to the results of the master’s qualification work, the following tasks were performed: 1. Theoretical researches on definition of the basic factors which define regularities of change of a delay in traffic flows on city streets and roads in time and space are carried out. 2. Methods of collecting and processing primary indicators in traffic flows, which are the initial information for simulation, are determined. 3. A transport microscopic model of a city street was created, in which simulation modeling of the state of traffic flow and the amount of traffic delay in it depending on the change of time parameters of traffic light regulation and traffic intensity was carried out. 4. The predicted values of traffic delay at unregulated and regulated intersections of the city street, as well as the probability of problems with the organization of traffic in future periods. Key words: traffic delay, traffic flow, traffic intensity, traffic flow composition, traffic modeling, field research. References. 1. Havrylov, E., Dmytychenko, M., Dolya, V., Lanovyy, V., Lynnyk, I., & Polishchuk, V. (2007). Systemolohiya na transporti. Orhanizatsiya dorozhn?oho rukhu [Systemology in transport. Organization of traffic]. Kyiv: Znannya Ukrayiny [in Ukrainian]. 2. Polishchuk, V., Bakulich, O., Dzyuba, O., Yeresov, V., & Krasilnikova, O. (2012). Orhanizatsiya ta rehulyuvannya dorozhn?oho rukhu [Organization and regulation of traffic]. Kyiv: Znannya Ukrayiny [in Ukrainian]. 3. Fornalchyk, Ye., Mohyla, I., Trushevskyy, V., & Hilevych, V. (2018). Upravlinnya dorozhnim rukhom na rehul?ovanykh perekhrestyakh u mistakh [Traffic management at regulated intersections in cities]. Lviv: Vydavnytstvo L?vivs?koyi politekhniky [in Ukrainian]. 4. Fornalchyk, Ye., Hilevych, V., & Mohyla, I. (2020). Modelyuvannya transportnykh potokiv [Modeling of traffic flows]. Lviv: Vydavnytstvo L?vivs?koyi politekhniky [in Ukrainian]. 5. Dolya, V., Sanko, Ya., & Samisko, T. (2012). Prohnozuvannya parametriv transportnykh system [Forecasting the parameters of transport systems]. Kharkiv: KhNAMH [in Ukrainian]. 6. Polishchuk, V., & Dzyuba, O. (2008). Teoriya transportnoho potoku: metody ta modeli orhanizatsiyi dorozhn?oho rukhu [Theory of transport flow: methods and models of traffic organization]. Kyiv: Znannya Ukrayiny [in Ukrainian].