Time Characteristics Forecasting of Electric Power Systems and Networks

Major: Electrical Energetic, Electrical Engineering and Electromechanics
Code of subject: 8.141.00.M.013
Credits: 3.00
Department: Theoretical and General Electrical Engineering
Lecturer: Assoc. Prof. Oksana Hoholyuk
Semester: 2 семестр
Mode of study: денна
Learning outcomes: 1. Ability to demonstrate systematic knowledge of modern research methods in the field of power engineering, electrical engineering and electromechanics; 2. Ability to demonstrate in-depth knowledge in the chosen field of research; 3. Ability to apply knowledge and understanding to solve problems of synthesis and analysis of elements and systems characteristic of the chosen field of research; 4. Ability to apply a systematic approach, integrating knowledge from other disciplines and taking into account non-technical aspects, while solving theoretical and applied problems of the chosen field of research; 5. Ability to work effectively both individually and as a team; 6. Ability to independently perform experimental research and apply research skills; 7. Ability to assess the feasibility and feasibility of new methods and technologies in the synthesis of power, electrical and electromechanical systems; 8. Ability to argue the choice of methods for solving scientific and applied problems, critically evaluate the results and defend decisions; 9. Ability to treat the work responsibly and achieve the goal in compliance with the requirements of professional ethics.
Required prior and related subjects: Analytical and numerical research methods • System analysis and methods of identification of electrical objects • Modern control methods and their application in electrical systems • Modern areas of research in the field • Macromodeling of components of electromechanical systems
Summary of the subject: Forecasting of energy consumption indicators, essence and stages. Approaches to the classification of forecasting types. The main provisions of the theory of experimental planning in order to obtain reliable data. Modern hardware-measuring complexes of data registration. Mathematical models and methods for medium-term, short-term, long-term and operational forecasting. Application of an optimization approach to the construction of autonomous macromodels in the form of a "black box" based on expert analysis to predict energy consumption. Application of fuzzy logic and neural networks to build mathematical models of energy consumption. Methods of verification of forecasting results, regression and correlation analysis. Examples of building macromodels of energy consumption.
Assessment methods and criteria: • oral examination, results of laboratory work (40%) • final control: exam, written and oral form (60%)
Recommended books: 1. Stakhiv PG Discrete macromodeling in electrical engineering and related fields. Monograph / PG Stakhiv, Yu. Ya. Kozak, OP Gogolyuk; Nat. Lviv University. Polytechnic ”. - L .: Published by Nat. University “Lviv. Polytechnic University ”, 2014. - 260 p. 2. Kalman R., Falb P., Arbib M. Essays on the mathematical theory of systems: Per. with English –M .: Mir, 1971.– 400 p 3. Lanne AA Nonlinear dynamical systems. Synthesis, optimization, identification. - L .: VAS, 1985. - 240 p. 4. Databases. Intelligent information processing. / VV Korneev, AF Gareev, SV Vasyutin, VV Reich. M .: Nolidzh, 2001. -496p. 5. Matviychuk Ya. M. Mathematical macromodeling of dynamic systems: theory and practice. – Lviv: Ed. center of Lviv. nat. University Ivan Franko, 2000. - 215 p. 6. Kirilenko OV Mathematical modeling in electric power engineering: textbook / OV Kirilenko, MS Szegeda, OF Butkevich, TA Mazur. - Lviv: Lviv Polytechnic National University Publishing House, 2010. - 608 p. 7. Models and methods of forecasting electricity and power in the management of power systems: a monograph / Filippova TA, Rusina AG, Dronova Yu. V. - Novosibirsk: Publisher: Novosibirsk State Technical University, 2009.- 365