Modeling and Forecasting in E-commerce

Major: Business, Trade and Exchange Activities
Code of subject: 6.076.04.E.137
Credits: 5.00
Department: Ecological Politics and Environment Protection Management
Lecturer: Proftssor Rostyslav Slav`yuk
Semester: 8 семестр
Mode of study: денна
Learning outcomes: The ability to solve complex tasks and problems in the field of entrepreneurship, trade and/or exchange activity or in the process of learning, which involves conducting research and/or implementing innovations under uncertain conditions and requirements. Knowledge and understanding of basic trends, scientific principles, concepts and methods necessary for the implementation of the function of research on the influence of external and internal environmental factors on the organization. Knowledge and understanding of the elements of modern civil safety (technogenic, ecological safety, industrial safety, occupational medicine, industrial sanitation, occupational hygiene, personal safety) at a level that corresponds to the state of development of modern social and industrial relations. Apply business communications to support interaction with representatives of various professional groups. Ability to identify, pose and solve problems. Ability to develop and implement a strategy for the development of business, trade and/or stock exchange structures. Ability to evaluate products, goods and services in business, trade and/or stock exchange activities Ability to effectively manage the activities of business entities in the field of entrepreneurship and trade and/or exchange activity. Ability to solve problematic issues and make management decisions in professional activities. Knowledge and understanding of scientific theories and methods of research and optimization of transfer flows. The ability to use modern technologies of information and analytical analysis of empirical data based on the application of mathematical modeling and simulation using electronic computing systems. The ability to research and perform economic forecasting of the effectiveness of commercial activity. Ability to adapt to new situations and make appropriate decisions The ability to realize the need for lifelong learning in order to deepen the acquired and acquire new professional knowledge The ability to take responsibility for the work performed, to make decisions independently, to achieve the set goal in compliance with the requirements of professional ethics
Required prior and related subjects: Prerequisites: Methods of empirical market research Requirements: Business planning and audit of investment projects Postrequisites: Commercial risk management
Summary of the subject: Topic 1. Methodological foundations of forecasting economic processes 1. Basic concepts, goals and tasks of forecasting economic processes. Stages and principles of forecasting 2. Prediction as an anticipatory reflection of reality 3. Forecasting and planning, their tasks, similarities and differences 4. The place of forecasting among the functions of managing socio-economic processes 5. Types and purpose of forecasts, methods and parameters of forecasts Topic 2. Economic efficiency of the enterprise's commercial activity 1. The essence of economic efficiency 2. The main indicators of evaluating the effectiveness of commercial activity. Topic 3. Use of methods of forecasting the economic efficiency of the enterprise's commercial activity 1. The concept of a trend, methods of establishing the presence of a trend 2. Simple methods of trend extrapolation extrapolation based on analytical indicators of dynamics series, extrapolation based on moving average Topic 4. Economics - mathematical and statistical methods of evaluating and forecasting the effectiveness of commercial activity 1. Methods of evaluating the effectiveness of commercial activity in the forecasting system 3. Determination of model values 5. Smoothing models with a trend. Topic 5. Fundamental and technical analysis in the system of forecasting the economic efficiency of the commercial activity of enterprises 1. Modern methods of fundamental analysis and forecasting 2. Technical analysis 3. The use of fundamental and technical analysis to build forecasts Topic 6. Use of technical means in the forecasting process Software in the forecasting process Use of licensed software products Topic 7. Use of forecasting results in business processes and formation of cross-industry balances
Assessment methods and criteria: Current control (100%): - oral survey (10%) 2 points per class (10 points), tests (80%) - maximum number of points 90; - performance of control work (10%) maximum number of points 10 points. Assessment of knowledge during seminar tasks is carried out according to the following methodology: 1). oral express survey 2 points of knowledge of the educational material of the module contained in the main and additional recommended literary sources, the ability to analyze the phenomena being studied in their relationship and development. 1 point for mediocre knowledge of the learning material of the module. 2). testing students' knowledge of theoretical material: 5 points for a complete answer to all 16 questions of the thematic block. 4 points - for deep knowledge of the educational material, but answers to 12 questions. 3 points - reasoned answers, but answers to 9 questions. 2 points - mediocre knowledge of the educational material, answer to 6 questions. 1 point - weak knowledge of the educational material, answer to 3 questions. 3). control work 10 points of knowledge of the test material contained in the main and additional recommended literary sources, the ability to analyze the phenomena being studied in their relationship and development 5 points intermediate knowledge of the material of the control work contained in the main and literary sources, the ability to analyze the phenomena being studied.
Recommended books: 1. Golikov V.I. Transfer of technologies: Training manual. — Mykolaiv: NUK, 2014. — 362 p. 2. Prince S.V. Transfer potential of innovative development of machine-building enterprises: [monograph] / S.V. Prince. – Lviv: Publishing House of Lviv Polytechnic, 2010. – 332 p. 3. Kosarev O. Y. Financial flows in logistics systems: teaching. manual / O. Y. Kosarev, O. V. Pozniak – K.: NAU-druk, 2010. – 246 p. 4. N. Kovalenko. Cash flow management of Ukrainian enterprises in modern economic conditions / N. Kovalenko // Economic analysis. – 2011. – No. 8. – P. 40-44. 5. Matviets M.V. Diversification of cash flows of the enterprise in the context of its financial policy / M.V. Matviets // Scientific works of NDFI. – 2010. – No. 11. – P. 37-41. 6. Maiborda O.V. Optimization of financial flows of an industrial enterprise: theoretical aspects of the issue / O.V. Maiboroda // Development Economics. - Kharkiv: Khneu. – 2012. - No. 1(61). - P. 107-110. 7. Perlovska N.V. Justification of the criterion of the effectiveness of cash flow management of the enterprise / N.V. Perlovska // Economic Sciences. - 2011. - No. 7. - P. 87-90. 8. Rolko O.Yu. The value of the effectiveness of cash flow management of enterprises / O.Yu. Rolko // Actual problems of economics. – 2011. – No. 3. – P. 18-22. 9. Kharchenko V.A. The cash flow management system of the enterprise / V.A. Kharchenko // Herald of economic science of Ukraine. – 2011. - No. 1. - P. 61-65. 10. PAWEL DEBSKI DAMIAN DEBSKI Planowanie, analiza ekonomiczna i sprawozdawczosc, wydawnictwo: WsiP 2013– 230 p. 11. Franciszek Blawat Podstawy analizy ekonomicznej Teorie, przyklady, zadania. Wydawnictwo: CeDeWu. - 2020 - 282s.