Economic Forecasting

Major: Business Economics
Code of subject: 6.051.03.O.063
Credits: 5.00
Department: Business Economics and Investment
Lecturer: Kichor Volodymyr Petrovych, Ph.D. in Technical Sciences, Associate Professor
Semester: 5 семестр
Mode of study: денна
Learning outcomes: knowledge and understanding of methods of analysis, assessment and forecasting of economic processes; knowledge and understanding of the apparatus of economic forecasting at different levels of management of economic systems; ability to collect, process and analyze statistical information; ability to build predictive models of economic processes at the micro, meso and macro levels; ability to evaluate the parameters of prognostic models, analyze and interpret the results; possession of skills of construction of economic forecasts with use of modern information technologies of statistical data processing
Required prior and related subjects: Prerequisites: Mathematics for Economists Economic-Mathematical Methods and Models Statistics Information Systems and Technologies in Economics Co-requisites: Economic Analysis Economic Risks and Methods of their Assessment
Summary of the subject: Theoretical and applied principles of economic forecasting. Expert forecasting methods. Time series as an information base of formalized forecasting methods. Forecasting based on algorithmic and analytical smoothing of time series. Methods of adaptive forecasting according to the scheme of the flowing average. Models and methods of seasonal decomposition. Stationary time series forecasting based on autoregression and moving average models. Integrated models of autoregression and fluid mean. Evaluation of parameters and testing of ARMA-models. Multifactorial prediction based on classical regression. Forecasting based on regression models based on mixed factor sets. Prediction in terms of multicollinearity and heteroskedasticity. Forecasting based on simulated econometric models. Prediction based on neural networks.
Assessment methods and criteria: Current control (100): performance and protection of laboratory works (50%); execution and protection of individual control work (20%); control testing (30%).
Recommended books: 1. Благун І.С. Економічне прогнозування: теоретичні та прикладні аспекти: підручник / І.С.Благун, В.П.Кічор, Н.Є.Селюченко; за ред.В.П.Кічора, Львів: Растр 7, 2020. - 290 с. 2. Прогнозування соціально-економічних процесів: навч.посіб./ Т.С.Клебанова та ін. - Харків: ХНЕУ ім.С.Кузнеця, 2015. - 656 с. 3. Раєвнєва О.В., Стрижиченко К.А., Гольтяєва Л.А, Чанкіна І.В. Статистичне моделювання та прогнозування: навч. посіб./ Ред. О.В.Раєвнєва. Харків: ИНЖЕК, 2014. - 576 с.